ETX2011 - Quantitative methods for risk analysis - 2018

This unit presents the basis techniques of quantitative risk analysis. Risk identification and measurement techniques most commonly used in industry are discussed, including descriptive statistics. The basic rules of probability are presented in practical contexts and as the foundation for the study of probability distributions - themselves the foundations of risk analysis models. Finally, spreadsheet models of practical situations are developed and evaluated, using simulation methods.

The learning goals associated with this unit are to:

1. analyse risk statistically by summarising and interpreting data using techniques of descriptive statistics including the use of associated spreadsheet functions
2. analyse and evaluate risk by applying concepts of probability and of probability distributions
3. analyse and evaluate risk via Monte Carlo simulation, using @Risk software
4. evaluate decision-making strategies, including use of PrecisionTree software
5. describe and analyse the quality of production in an industrial process, using statistical control charts.

Within semester assessment: 30% + Examination: 70%

Minimum total expected workload to achieve the learning outcomes for this unit is 144 hours per semester typically comprising a mixture of scheduled learning activities and independent study. Independent study may include associated readings, assessment and preparation for scheduled activities. The unit requires on average three/four hours of scheduled activities per week. Scheduled activities may include a combination of teacher directed learning, peer directed learning and online engagement.

See also Unit timetable information