ETW3420 - Principles of forecasting and applications - 2018

Obtaining reliable forecasts of business and economic variables is a challenging task that organisations face. This challenge is exacerbated against the backdrop of structural changes and volatility in markets and the economy. In this unit, students will be introduced to methods suitable for forecasting in these circumstances. These methods include classical decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling and regression with auto-correlated disturbances. Students will also be exposed to several case studies, to study the application of these methods in real-life situations. Students can expect to enhance their computer skills with exercises using econometric packages.

The learning goals associated with this unit are to:

1. Motivate the need for obtaining reliable forecasts in business and economics
2. Understand and apply appropriate statistical methods for business and economic forecasting
3. Develop computer skills for forecasting from business and economic time series data
4. Develop research skills and be able to write and present reports effectively.

Within semester assessment: 60% + Examination: 40%

Minimum total expected workload to achieve the learning outcomes for this unit is 144 hours per semester typically comprising a mixture of scheduled learning activities and independent study. Independent study may include associated readings, assessment and preparation for scheduled activities. The unit requires on average three/four hours of scheduled activities per week. Scheduled activities may include a combination of teacher directed learning, peer directed learning and online engagement.

See also Unit timetable information