ETF5231 - Business forecasting

Leader(s): Dr Ann Maharaj

Offered

Caulfield First semester 2009 (Day)

Synopsis

Review of basic time series analysis techniques. Moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Box-Jenkins method of forecasting. Comparison of forecasting techniques. Introduction to time series regression, dynamic models and cointegration. Applications to time series from accounting, economics, banking, finance and management areas. Use of Excel and SPSS.

Objectives

The learning goals associated with this unit are to:

• identify the basic tools of forecasting and define the basic time series analysis techniques
• describe the decomposition techniques, exponential smoothing forecasting techniques and Box-Jenkins method of forecasting
• compare the forecasts of real economic, business and financial time series by decomposition techniques and exponential smoothing techniques using Excel and Box Jenkins method using SPSS
• differentiate between decomposition methods, exponential smoothing methods and autoregressive methods of forecasting
• analyse time series in the business environment using the appropriate methods and interpret computer output.

Assessment

Within semester assessment: 40%
Examination (2 hours): 60%

Contact hours

Two 1-hour lectures and one 1-hour laboratory/tutorial per week

Prerequisites

Students must be enrolled in course codes 3816 or 3822 or must have passed ETX2121, ETX2111 or MBA9007

Prohibitions

ETX3231