ETC2450

Applied forecasting for business and economics ( 6 points, SCA Band 2, 0.125 EFTSL)

Leader: Dr Catherine Forbes and Associate Professor Ralph Snyder

Offered:
Clayton First semester 2006 (Day)

Synopsis: Reliable forecasts of business and economic variables must often be obtained against a backdrop of structural change in markets and the economy. This subject provides a practical introduction to methods suitable for forecasting in these circumstances including the classical decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling, and regression with auto-correlated disturbances. It also provides an introduction to applied multiple regression analysis. Students can expect to enhance their computer skills with exercises using advanced features of Microsoft Excel and an econometrics package.

Assessment: Written (2 assignments ): 40% + Examinations (2 hours): 60%

Contact Hours: Two 1-hour lectures and one 2-hour tutorial per week

Prerequisites: ETC1010 or ETC2010 or ETC1031