Monash University Handbook 2011 Undergraduate - Unit
ETC3420 - Bayesian modelling and risk analysis
6 points, SCA Band 3, 0.125 EFTSL
Refer to the specific
census and withdrawal dates for the semester(s) in which this unit is offered.
Synopsis
To provide a further grounding in mathematical and statistical techniques of particular relevance to insurance and financial work.
Objectives
The learning goals associated with this unit are to:
- explain the concepts of decision theory and apply them
- calculate probabilities and moments of loss distributions both with and without limits and risk-sharing arrangements
- construct risk models involving frequency and severity distributions and calculate the moment generating function and the moments for the risk models both with and without simple reinsurance arrangements
- explain the concept of ruin for a risk model
- explain the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistics and use these concepts to calculate Bayesian estimators
- describe the fundamental concepts of risk rating and apply them to simple experience rating systems
- describe and apply techniques for analysing a delay (or run-off) triangle and projecting the ultimate position
- explain the fundamental concepts of a generalised linear model (GLM), and describe how a GLM may apply
- define and apply the main concepts underlying the analysis of time series models
- explain the concepts of 'Monte Carlo' simulation using a series of pseudo-random numbers.
Assessment
Within semester assessment: 30%
Examination (3 hours): 70%
Chief examiner(s)
Catherine Forbes
Contact hours
4 hours per week
Prerequisites
ETC2520