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| Undergraduate |
(BUS)
|
Leader: Dr H. (Mindi) Nath
Offered:
Berwick Second semester 2005 (Day)
Gippsland Second semester 2005 (Day)
Peninsula Second semester 2005 (Day)
Synopsis: The unit aims to introduce the art of forecasting via a modelling approach. It will cover the nature and essentials of forecasting, residual analysis, the moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques, decomposition methods of forecasting, regression and ARIMA forecasting models. Applications will include areas of accounting, economics, banking, finance, marketing and management. Excel and SPSS will be used.
Objectives: On the completion of this unit students will be able to demonstrate an understanding of time series data, its principal components and limitations of a forecasting model. They will be able to apply an appropriate forecasting technique; evaluate competing forecasting models; use Excel and SPSS for modelling a time series. Students will be able to show their ability to apply smoothing, decomposition, causal and ARIMA techniques for generating forecasts.
Assessment: Two assignments:40%+ Examination(2hours): 60%.
Contact Hours: Two 1-hour lectures and one 1-hour laboratory/tutorial per week.