ETX3011

Quantitative methods in risk analysis

(BUS)

Proposed to be offered next in 2003

Mr Bruce Stephens

6 points + Caulfield, OCDL + First and second semesters + 2-hour lecture and 1-hour tutorial per week, plus 9 hours of private study + Prerequisites: Any one, or equivalent, of: ETX1100, BMS11, ETC1020, ETC1031 + Prohibitions: ETX9520

Synopsis: This unit presents the basis techniques of quantitative risk analysis. Risk identification and measurement techniques most commonly used in industry are discussed, including physical inspections, check lists, organisational charts, flow charts, hazard and operability studies, fault trees, hazard indices and descriptive statistics. The basic rules of probability are presented in practical contexts and as the foundation for the study of probability distributions - themselves the foundations of risk analysis models. Finally, spreadsheet models of practical situations are developed and evaluated, using simulation methods.

Assessment: Mino project: 10% + Major project: 20% + Examination (3 hours): 70%