Undergraduate - UnitETC2450 - Applied forecasting for business and economics

This unit entry is for students who completed this unit in 2015 only. For students planning to study the unit, please refer to the unit indexes in the the current edition of the Handbook. If you have any queries contact the managing faculty for your course or area of study.

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6 points, SCA Band 3, 0.125 EFTSL

Refer to the specific census and withdrawal dates for the semester(s) in which this unit is offered.

Level	Undergraduate
Faculty	Faculty of Business and Economics
Organisational Unit	Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
Offered	Clayton First semester 2015 (Day)
Coordinator(s)	Professor Rob Hyndman

Synopsis

Reliable forecasts of business and economic variables must often be obtained against a backdrop of structural change in markets and the economy. This unit provides a practical introduction to methods suitable for forecasting in these circumstances including the classical decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling, and regression with auto-correlated disturbances. It also provides an introduction to applied multiple regression analysis. Students can expect to enhance their computer skills with exercises using advanced features of Microsoft Excel and an econometrics package.

Outcomes

The learning goals associated with this unit are to:

provide an understanding of common statistical methods used in business and economic forecasting
develop computer skills for forecasting from business and economics time series data
provide insights into the problems of implementing and operating large scale forecasting systems for use in production and services management.

Assessment

Within semester assessment: 40%
Examination: 60%

Workload requirements

Minimum total expected workload to achieve the learning outcomes for this unit is 144 hours per semester typically comprising a mixture of scheduled learning activities and independent study. Independent study may include associated readings, assessment and preparation for scheduled activities. The unit requires on average three/four hours of scheduled activities per week. Scheduled activities may include a combination of teacher directed learning, peer directed learning and online engagement.

Chief examiner(s)

Professor Rob Hyndman

Prerequisites

ETC1000