Monash University Handbook 2010 Undergraduate - Unit

Synopsis

Reliable forecasts of business and economic variables must often be obtained against a backdrop of structural change in markets and the economy. This unit provides a practical introduction to methods suitable for forecasting in these circumstances including the classical decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling, and regression with auto-correlated disturbances. It also provides an introduction to applied multiple regression analysis. Students can expect to enhance their computer skills with exercises using advanced features of Microsoft Excel and an econometrics package.

Objectives

The learning goals associated with this unit are to:

• provide an understanding of common statistical methods used in business and economic forecasting
• develop computer skills for forecasting from business and economics time series data
• provide insights into the problems of implementing and operating large scale forecasting systems for use in production and services management.

Assessment

Within semester assessment: 40%
Examinations (2 hours): 60%

Chief examiner(s)

Rob Hyndman

Contact hours

Two 1-hour lectures and one 2-hour tutorial per week

Prerequisites

ETC1000