ETX3231 - Business forecasting

Leader: Dr Ann Maharaj

Offered

Caulfield First semester 2008 (Day)

Synopsis

Basic forecasting tools. Review of basic time series analysis techniques. Moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Box-Jenkins method of forecasting. Comparison of forecasting techniques. Introduction to time series regression and dynamic models. Applications to time series from the accounting, economics, banking, finance and management areas. Excel and SPSS will be used.

Objectives

The learning objectives of this unit are to:

• identify the basic tools of forecasting and define the basic time series analysis techniques;
• describe the decomposition techniques, exponential smoothing forecasting techniques and Box-Jenkins method of forecasting;
• compare the forecasts of real economic, business and financial time series by decomposition techniques and exponential smoothing techniques using Excel and Box Jenkins method using SPSS;
• differentiate between decomposition methods, exponential smoothing methods and autoregressive methods of forecasting;
• analyse time series in the business environment using the appropriate methods and interpret computer output.

Assessment

Within semester assessment: 40%
Final examination (2 hours): 60%

Contact hours

Two 1-hour lectures, one 2-hour tutorial per week

Prerequisites

ETX2111 or ETX2121 or ETX2171 or ETX2161 or ETC1010

Prohibitions

ETC2450