ETF5231 - Business forecasting

Leader: Dr Ann Maharaj

Offered

Caulfield First semester 2008 (Day)

Synopsis

Review of basic time series analysis techniques. Moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Box-Jenkins method of forecasting. Comparison of forecasting techniques. Introduction to time series regression, dynamic models and co-integration. Applications to time series from accounting, economics, banking, finance and management areas. Use of Excel and SPSS.

Objectives

The learning goals associated with this unit are to:

• identify the basic tools of forecasting and define the basic time series analysis techniques
• describe the decomposition techniques, exponential smoothing forecasting techniques and Box-Jenkins method of forecasting
• compare the forecasts of real economic, business and financial time series by decomposition techniques and exponential smoothing techniques using Excel and Box Jenkins method using SPSS
• differentiate between decomposition methods, exponential smoothing methods and autoregressive methods of forecasting
• analyse time series in the business environment using the appropriate methods and interpret computer output.

Assessment

Within semester assessment: 40%
Examination (2 hours): 60%

Contact hours

Two 1-hour lectures and one 1-hour laboratory/tutorial per week

Prerequisites

Students must be enrolled in course codes 3816 or 3822 or must have passed ETX2121, ETX2111 or MBA9007.

Prohibitions

ETX3231