ETX9520 - Quantitative methods for risk analysis

Leader: Mr Bruce Stephens

Offered

Caulfield First semester 2007 (Day)
Caulfield Second semester 2007 (Day)
Caulfield Second semester 2007 (Off-campus)
Caulfield Second semester 2007 (On-campus)
Singapore Second semester 2007 (Off-campus)

Synopsis

Topics include the need for risk analysis and the costs involved; the nature of risk and human behaviour; risk identification and measurement techniques most commonly used in industry, including physical inspections, check lists, organisational charts, flow charts, hazard and operability studies, fault trees and hazard indices; fundamental statistical analysis, including the use of probability and probability distributions and the use of simulation models; reports and the techniques of report writing.

Objectives

The learning objectives of this unit are to:

• analyse risk statistically by summarising and interpreting data using techniques of descriptive statistics including the use of associated spreadsheet functions;
• analyse and evaluate risk by applying concepts of probability and of probability decisions;
• analyse and evaluate risk via Monte Carlo simulation, using @Risk software;
• evaluate decision-making strategies, including use of PrecisionTree software;
• describe and analyse the quality of production in an industrial process, using statistical control charts.

Assessment

3 minor assignments: 15% each
Examination (2 hours): 55%

Contact hours

3 hours per week

Prohibitions

ETX3011, BUS3800, BUS5800