ETX2011 - Quantitative methods for risk analysis

Leader: Mr Bruce Stephens

Offered

Caulfield First semester 2007 (Day)
Caulfield Second semester 2007 (Day)
Caulfield Second semester 2007 (Off-campus)
Singapore First semester 2007 (Off-campus)

Synopsis

This unit presents the basis techniques of quantitative risk analysis. Risk identification and measurement techniques most commonly used in industry are discussed, including physical inspections, check lists, organisational charts, flow charts, hazard and operability studies, fault trees, hazard indices and descriptive statistics. The basic rules of probability are presented in practical contexts and as the foundation for the study of probability distributions - themselves the foundations of risk analysis models. Finally, spreadsheet models of practical situations are developed and evaluated, using simulation methods.

Objectives

The learning objectives of this unit are to:

• analyse risk statistically by summarising and interpreting data using techniques of descriptive statistics including the use of associated spreadsheet functions;
• analyse and evaluate risk by applying concepts of probability and of probability decisions;
• analyse and evaluate risk via Monte Carlo simulation, using @Risk software;
• evaluate decision-making strategies, including use of PrecisionTree software;
• describe and analyse the quality of production in an industrial process, using statistical control charts.

Assessment

Minor project: 10%
Major project: 20%
Examination (2 hours): 70%

Prerequisites

ETX1100

Prohibitions

ETX9520, ETX3011, BUS3800, BUS5800