ETW3420 - Principles of forecasting and applications

Leader: Dr Santha Vaithilingam

Offered

Not offered in 2007

Synopsis

Topics include fundamentals of forecasting, univariate and multivariate forecasting tools. The univariate forecasting tools include moving averages, exponential smoothng forecasting, seasonal decomposition, review of basic time series analysis and Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models. Econometric approaches to multivariate forecasting include regression models, modeling and forecasting with ARIMA processes and evaluation of forecasts. Introduction to qualitative forecasting methods including technological forecasting methods. Excel, SPSS and E-views will be used.

Objectives

The learning objectives of this unit are to:

• recognise typical forecasting problems in business and economics;
• understand and appreciate statistical underpinning and foundation of forecasting techniques;
• be familiar with the various tools used in forecasting and to be able to apply these techniques appropriately and recognise the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques used;
• have an appreciation of forecasting in practice;
• develop quantitative research skills and ability in interpreting computer output and to be able to write and present reports effectively.

Assessment

Assignments: 40%
Examination (2 hours): 60%

Contact hours

One 2-hour lecture and one 2-hour tutorial/lab per week

Prerequisites

ETW2410

Prohibitions

ETC2450, ETX3231, ETW3232