ETW3232 - Forecasting for business

Leader: Dr H. (Mindi) Nath

Offered

Berwick Second semester 2007 (Day)

Synopsis

The unit aims to introduce the art of forecasting via a modelling approach. It will cover the nature and essentials of forecasting, residual analysis, the moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques, decomposition methods of forecasting, regression and ARIMA forecasting models. Applications will include areas of accounting, economics, banking, finance, marketing and management. Excel and SPSS will be used.

Objectives

The learning objectives of this unit are to:

• demonstrate an understanding of the basics of the art of forecasting, recognise limitations of forecasting models and describe the importance of following a pragmatic approach;
• discuss the importance of the role of graphs, forecast errors and statistics in building a forecast model, and the use of prediction intervals;
• apply acquired skills and knowledge to forecast economic, business and financial time series using smoothing, decomposition, Regression and ARIMA forecasting techniques with the help of Excel and or SPSS;
• evaluate competing forecasting models;
• apply acquired skills in interpreting computer output and report writing.

Assessment

Two assignments:40%+ Examination(2hours): 60%.

Contact hours

Two 1-hour lectures and one 1-hour laboratory/tutorial per week.

Prerequisites

ETW1102, ETX1100 or ETW1000

Prohibitions

ETX3231, ETC2450, MAT3257.