Forecasting
Not offered in 1995
BS BB BT DT BC BP BDT
Mrs Harminder Nath
6 points * Second semester * 5 hours per week * Gippsland/Distance (even-numbered years only) * Prerequisites: GAS1631 or GAS2751 and one computing subject is desirable
The subject aims to introduce the art of forecasting via a modelling approach. The subject covers the nature and essentials of forecasting, introduction to time-series modelling, residual analysis; forecasting techniques - choice and applicability; causal techniques of forecasting, the moving average and exponential smoothing methods; the decomposition methods of forecasting, Delphi method, subjective probability method; technological forecasting techniques; an overview of advanced forecasting techniques - Box-Jenkins method, econometric models. Use of computer packages to compare forecasting techniques and to prepare forecasts.
Assessment
Assignments: 60% * Examination: 40%
Prescribed texts
Makridakis S and others Forecasting: Methods and applications 2nd edn, Wiley, 1983
Recommended texts
Bowerman B and others Time series forecasting: Unified concepts and computer implementation 2nd edn, Duxbury, 1987
Farnum N and others Quantitative forecasting methods PWS-Kent, 1989